讲座主题：Motivated reasoning and overconfidence
讲座时间：2024年10月15日（周二）下午14:00-16:00
讲座地点：沙河校区二教214
主讲人：Professor Marie Claire Villeval
主讲人简介：ProfessorMarie Claire Villeval，欧洲科学院院士，法国国家科学研究中心（CNRS）教授，里昂大学GATE-Lab负责人，法国实验经济学会创始主席，并曾任经济科学学会（ESA）主席以及法国经济学会（AFSE）主席，同时担任劳动经济研究所（IZA）研究员，因其杰出学术贡献受颁法国国家功绩骑士勋章，荣誉军团骑士勋章并获得CNRS银质奖章。Marie Claire Villeval教授主要研究领域包括实验经济学、行为经济学、劳动经济学和公共经济学，其在包括American Economic Review,Management Science, Economic Journal,Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Public Economics, PNAS等期刊发表超过125篇论文，并同时担任Management Science部门编辑，Experimental Economics顾问编辑，以及Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization荣誉编辑。
Abstract:Overconfidence -whether in the form of overestimation, overplacement, or overprecision is a widespread and influential phenomenon. According to D. Kahneman (2015), it is the most damaging flaw in decision-making, with significant negative consequences for organizations and markets. While early economic research primarily focused on identifying and measuring this bias, later work shifted to exploring how preferences and beliefs are deeply intertwined. Belief updating can be motivated. Although factors such as self-image and the desire to control future selves can play a crucial role in belief updating, the role of social signaling has gained attention more recently. The lecture will present several recent studies that demonstrate how overconfidence is a socially-rooted bias in confidence judgments. It will explore the social construction of motivated reasoning and examine how the selective transmission of information contributes to overconfidence in both individuals and groups.
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